The Grade III, $100,000 Louisville Stakes will be renewed at Churchill Downs this Saturday. A field of 12 will be tasked with a 1 1/2-mile journey on the turf in this one. Post time for the Louisville, the finale on an 11-race program, is 6:22 p.m. ET.
#3 APRECIADO (12-1) looms a potential upset candidate in the Louisville. He closed to be a solid third in his first career stakes try at 1 1/2 miles, the Grade III W.L. McKnight Handicap at Gulfstream, back in January. But APRECIADO does not necessarily need to drop far out of proceedings in this one. In fact, he usually does his best work when stalking the pace. Martin Garcia, who’s having a fine season, will probably play the break to try and work out the right trip. APRECIADO likes going long and owns a victory at Churchill, so he’s worth a gamble at these odds.
#5 ARKLOW (8-5, morning-line favorite) drops out of Grade I company after consecutive off-the-board results following his Joe Hirsch victory. His 7-1-3-1 record from last year suggests he’s better used underneath, especially at these odds. But ARKLOW is a logical contender based on speed figures and is reunited with Florent Geroux.
#12 ADMISSION OFFICE (3-1) offered little in the lane in the Sunshine Forever Stakes at Gulfstream last time out, but a curious decision by Joel Rosario to have him stalk the pace may have contributed to that. The son of Point of Entry frequently offers a solid closing kick regardless of pace. ADMISSION OFFICE is hard to leave out, but seems to be an underlay on the win end. Julien Leparoux rides.
The play: $5 win 3, $2 exacta box 3/5, $2 exacta 5/12, $1 exacta 3/12 ($12)
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